The Monetary Component in Ensuring the Financial Security of the State

The paper studies the place and degree of the monetary component's influence on the level of financial security of the state in the conditions of political and socio-economic imbalances in the development of Ukraine. The aim of the research is to investigate the effectiveness of monetary policy instruments, to determine the level of the monetary component's impact on the financial security of the state, as well as to form perspectives for balancing the symbiosis of "monetary policy and national financial security". Based on the conducted research, it is established that in recent years the role of the financial security system formation at all levels has significantly increased, whether it is macroe-conomic security, the security of economical subjects, or the financial security of a household. At the same time, the monetary component plays a significant role in en-suring the financial security of the state, namely, it affects macroeconomic processes in the country. Therefore, in order to ensure macroeconomic stability and economic growth in the context of ensuring the financial security of Ukraine under martial law, it is necessary to improve the mechanisms of monetary policy. The article analyzes the latest threats that lead to the negative impact of the monetary component on the finan-cial security of the state. These include: the consequences of russian military aggression on the economic development of Ukraine, continued COVID-19 outbreaks, the introduc-tion of administrative restrictions on the use of monetary policy instruments by the National bank of Ukraine, violations of the economic security of financial institutions, an insufficient level of financial inclusion, and the contradictory nature of the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies. In the context of establishing the decisive role of the monetary component in ensuring the financial security of the state, the adopted devel-opment strategies at the level of national security of Ukraine and at the level of the monetary sector of Ukraine are considered and systematized. The block diagram of the implementation of monetary policy in the context of ensuring the financial security of the state is proposed. It is proved that the mechanism of such interrelationship is im-plemented through the instruments and methods of monetary policy in combination with key macroeconomic indicators. To confirm the proposed hypothesis, the econo-metric model of the influence of monetary instruments on the level of financial security of the state is developed. As a proxy indicator of the financial security of Ukraine, the Financial Stress Index is used, which reflects the current state of the financial sector (without considering future risks) and consists of sub-indices for the banking sector, households, government and corporate securities, and foreign exchange market. Esti-mated and re-estimated models made it possible to determine the most influential indi-cators of the monetary component of the Financial Stress Index, namely: consumer price index;producer price index;GDP to monetary aggregate M2 ratio;cash to GDP ratio;share of foreign currency in monetary aggregate M3;NBU key policy rate (annual average);share of non-performing loans (NPL). The proposed model can be used to forecast the influence of the parameters of the monetary component on the level of financial security of the state. Based on the results of the study, it is proved that, despite the difficult political and economic situation in Ukraine, it is necessary to focus on improving the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies, considering the further implementation of the main provi-sions of international documents adopted by International Monetary Fund on this issue.

Low Treatment Fidelity as an Indication to Switch Interventions: Pivoting From Child-Parent Psychotherapy to Parent-Child Interaction Therapy for Early Childhood Trauma

Young children who experience trauma and adverse experiences are at an increased risk of developing an insecure attachment style as well as negative physical and mental health problems. These can include internalizing and externalizing behavioral problems, developmental delay, emotional dysregulation, and aggression. Several evidence-based interventions exist to treat young children with symptoms related to trauma, each with different foundational theories. This article presents the case of a 4-year-old boy with posttraumatic stress disorder who was in the middle of a legal fight between caregivers and transitioning between caregivers' homes. Initially, therapy began with Child-Parent Psychotherapy to address caregivers' first concerns. Later, the therapeutical approach was switched to Parent-Child Interaction Therapy due to difficulty with treatment fidelity related to caregivers' symptoms and conflict. This case demonstrates great improvement in treatment fidelity and subsequently problem behaviors after switching to an intervention that allowed to address behavior management shortcomings in a family with ongoing conflict.Copyright © The Author(s) 2022.

Thiol level and total oxidant/antioxidant status in patients with COVID-19 infection.

BACKGROUND: Accumulating evidence suggests that oxidative stress is closely related to the pathogenesis and severity of COVID-19 infection. Here, we attempted to compare thiol, total oxidant status (TOS), total antioxidant status (TAS), and oxidative stress index (OSI) levels between COVID-19 patients who need and do not need intensive care unit (ICU) support, and determine whether these markers could be used as predictors of ICU admission. METHODS: We recruited 86 patients with COVID-19 infection and classified them into two groups according to the level of care: ICU group (n = 40) and non-ICU group (n = 46). Thiol, TAS, TOS, and OSI levels were determined and compared between the two groups. RESULTS: The levels of thiol and TAS in serum were markedly lower in ICU patients than in the non-ICU patients. On the contrary, TOS and OSI levels were markedly higher. Inflammatory markers, including white blood cell, neutrophil, C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, and ferritin, were negatively correlated with the thiol and TAS, and positively correlated with the TOS and OSI. We determined that areas under the ROC curve for thiol, TAS, TOS, and OSI were 0.799, 0.778, 0.713, and 0.780, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our results revealed that the increase in oxidative stress and decrease in antioxidant levels in COVID-19-infected patients were associated with worsening of disease. Thiol, TAS, TOS, and OSI parameters can be used to distinguish between ICU patients and those who do not, among which thiol was the best predictor of ICU requirement.

The Predictive Power of Financial Stress on the Financial Markets Dynamics: Hidden Markov Model

This study investigates the predictive power of the financial stress on the dynamic of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) financial market returns from 2007 to 2021. Based on a Quantile Regression, we show that financial stress has highest predictive abilities at the lower quantiles when the market is bearish. Then, we propose a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) based on the transition matrix to understand the relationship between financial stress index and the MENA stock market dynamics. We find that the effect of financial stress on stock market return reveals the persistence of regimes: Bullish state exists and persists, and has the longest conditional expected duration for the majority of MENA markets, except Bahrain, Qatar and Jordan. However, the transition probability from the bullish to the calm regime is too low for the financial market of Bahrain, United Arab Emirates and Egypt. Besides, the estimated mean returns for each regime divulge that the bearish and calm states are more attractive destination for both portfolio managers and investors. © 2022, Academy of Economics and Finance.

Parent resolution of diagnosis and intervention fidelity in a parent-delivered intervention for pre-school children with autism: A mixed methods study

Background: There is growing interest in parent-delivered interventions (PDI) for children with autism. Treatment fidelity has been associated with child outcomes in PDI but little is known about what impacts fidelity. One factor not previously examined is parents' resolution to the autism diagnosis which involves adjusting expectations about the child and sensitively responding to their cues, strengths and needs. Relatively little is known about resolution in the context of autism but there is evidence of an association between resolution and parent wellbeing. Method: The study adopted a mixed methods approach to examine whether there is an association between PDI fidelity and parent resolution to diagnosis, and whether resolution is associated with parent wellbeing. Parents of 31 preschool children diagnosed with autism who attended up to 12 Parent-delivered Early Start Denver Model (P-ESDM) coaching sessions participated in the study. A thematic analysis of parent interviews was also undertaken to identify themes raised by resolved and unresolved parents in interviews. Results: There was no difference in overall mean fidelity scores between resolved and unresolved parents. Those classified as resolved had lower depression scores and parenting stress scores than parents classified as unresolved. The qualitative analysis revealed that parents' perceptions of their child's progress and their hopes for the future appeared to distinguish resolved and unresolved parents. Conclusions: Findings suggest that parent wellbeing and child progress may predict resolution which was not related to parent treatment fidelity in this study. Parent wellbeing and resolution status should be assessed at entry to PDI.

The impacts of oil price volatility on financial stress: Is the COVID-19 period different?

This study analyses the effects of oil price volatility on financial stress with various measures for a large panel of countries. The study places a special focus on comparing the pattern of these effects during the Great Recession period and the COVID-19 recession period. Using the local projection approach, the paper finds that oil price volatility has a positive and persistent effect on financial stress. However, the magnitude and the degree of persistency of oil price volatility impacts on financial stress are much greater for the Great Recession period than for the COVID-19 recession period. A possible explanation for this result would be that COVID-19 is better thought of as a "natural disaster” in which companies under stress were not being mismanaged. Another explanation would be that active intervention by the government through monetary and fiscal channels reduces the sensitivity of financial instability to oil price volatility during the COVID-19 period.

INDONESIA'S FINANCIAL STRESS EVENTS AND MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS

In this study, we use a Markov-Switching Bayesian Vector AutoRegression model to investigate the episodic relationship between financial stress and the key macroeconomic variables in the case of Indonesia. We find different nature of relationships among Indonesia's real sector variables (household consumption expenditure and consumer price index), financial sector variables (interbank money market rate) and the policy variable (broad money supply during the times of high and low financial stress). Regime changes occurred on several occasions, including during the 2008 global financial crisis period and at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. © 2022 Authors. All rights reserved.

Stress Index of the Tax System of the Russian Federation in Terms of Tax Revenues

Economic systems are increasingly exposed to external shocks of various naturewhich test their resilience. The tax system, which is directly linked to the level of business activity, is one of the first to experience stress, so the ways it reacts to shock are of particular research interest. The 2020–2021 coronavirus pandemic made such studies more acute. The purpose of the paper is to develop and test new approaches in studying the resilience of the tax system in terms of tax revenues by analyzing the dynamics and structure of the tax system stress index in the Russian Federation in pre-pandemic, pandemic and recovery periods. The tax system stress index for tax revenues is calculated as the difference between the moving standard deviation and the moving average growth rate of tax revenues. We have developed a method for decomposing the stress index by source with determining the contribution of each tax to the average growth rate and to the standard deviation of the growth rate. We have also calculated the Russian Federation tax revenue stress index from December 2015 to March 2022 and identified its sources. It was found that the stress indices for almost all taxes (except for excises and state duties) are significantly positively correlated with each other. The main contribution to the growth of the stress index during the crisis and its decline within the recovery period is made by profit tax and a group of taxes on natural rent, which significantly negatively correlate with oil pricesUnder the pandemic crisis in Russia, the stress index on revenue form special tax regimes also increased significantly. It was found that the personal income tax has a stabilizing effect on the tax system stress index in the crisis and post-crisis periods. During the pandemic in Russia, the damping role of excises also came to the fore, which is explained by institutional factors and changes in tax rates. The research findings can be advantageous for the authorities to make an impact on the most vulnerable components of the tax system of the Russian Federation in order to increase its resilience to crises. © Malkina M.Yu., Balakin R.V., 2022.

Financial Stability and Economic Activity in China: Based on Mixed-Frequency Spillover Method

To improve financial sustainability and promote economic stability, it is important to understand the intricate relationship between finance and macroeconomy. Thus, focusing on financial stress and macroeconomic sectors, this paper investigates macro-financial spillovers in China. First, we develop a high-frequency financial stress index based on eight daily financial indicators to measure the stability of China’s financial markets. Through event identification, we find that China’s Financial Stress Index can effectively reflect the stress situation of China’s financial market. Then, given that the traditional co-frequency method fails to deal with financial stress index and macroeconomic data with different frequencies, we employ the mixed-frequency spillover method to evaluate macro-financial spillovers to examine the connectedness between China’s financial market and the real side of the economy. We find that financial stress is the leading net risk output and primarily affects the loan sector;deterioration of economic conditions can lead to more apparent fluctuations in spillover effects, with spillovers from financial stress to others being the most susceptible;within the sample, the 2015 stock crash, U.S.–China trade friction, and COVID-19 have the most impact on macro-financial spillover effects. In addition, we track the results of different risk events on spillover effects across sectors.

The Predictive Power of Financial Stress on the Financial Markets Dynamics: Hidden Markov Model

This study investigates the predictive power of the financial stress on the dynamic of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) financial market returns from 2007 to 2021. Based on a Quantile Regression, we show that financial stress has highest predictive abilities at the lower quantiles when the market is bearish. Then, we propose a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) based on the transition matrix to understand the relationship between financial stress index and the MENA stock market dynamics. We find that the effect of financial stress on stock market return reveals the persistence of regimes: Bullish state exists and persists, and has the longest conditional expected duration for the majority of MENA markets, except Bahrain, Qatar and Jordan. However, the transition probability from the bullish to the calm regime is too low for the financial market of Bahrain, United Arab Emirates and Egypt. Besides, the estimated mean returns for each regime divulge that the bearish and calm states are more attractive destination for both portfolio managers and investors. © 2022, Academy of Economics and Finance.

Real-Time Estimation of Alternative Stress Index for Low-Cost, Mechanical Ventilators for Emergency Use

Stress index is a useful indicator in mechanical ventilation to assess improper ventilation settings. It can indicate tidal overdistension or tidal recruitment, which are two major mechanisms of ventilator-induced lung injury. However, it's implementation require dedicated hardware and software and is not a widespread parameter used in commercial ventilators. In this work, an alternative, simple way to visually inspect the concavity of the pressure-time curve during mechanical ventilation is presented, by calculating the pressure difference of the pressure-time curve. This proves useful when implemented in low-cost emergency devices, such as those designed to cope with the COVID-19 pandemic, because of the reduced computational load required to perform its calculation. The method was implemented in a low-cost emergency mechanical ventilator and tested with an artificial lung for a proof-of-concept. Results show that this alternative method can be effectively used to qualitatively assess the concavity of the pressure-time curve.

Correlations in operational risk stress testing: use and abuse

Correlations between operational risk loss severity, frequency and economic factors have been used as a de facto tool to assess economic and regulatory capital since 1990. We demonstrate, using data from a single retail bank, that such correlations do not apply universally, and that projections of capital requirements are subject to wide error margins. Some correlations can be explained in terms of data trends. Given worldwide regulatory requirements to assess the resilience of financial institutions to economic shocks, an alternative to using correlations that makes use of economic data is proposed. The proposal is consistent with a much broader interpretation of capital allocation than has applied to date. Evidence that the Covid-19 pandemic had minimal effect on operational risk losses in 2020 is presented and the effect of model risk is emphasized. Our results show that the existence or otherwise of significant correlations depends on the regression model used, whether data series show trends, the time window concerned, geographical location and the type of financial institution. @ Infopro Digital Limited 2022.

EASIX, Modified EASIX and Simplified EASIX as an Early Predictor for Intensive Care Unit Admission and Mortality in Severe COVID-19 Patients.

COVID-19 receives a lot of attention due to its threat to global public health. Research is ongoing to find universal methods to assess the baseline health status of a patient to determine prognosis and management strategies. This study aims to assess the predictive potential of the EASIX (Endothelial Activation and Stress Index) and two of its modifications (mEASIX and sEASIX) in terms of the need for admission to the ICU (intensive care unit), the use of IMV (invasive mechanical ventilation) and death due to COVID-19. The medical data of 370 severely ill patients hospitalised in the COVID-19 departments of the Regional Specialist Hospital in Wroclaw (Poland), including the ICU, were analysed retrospectively. The mortality rate in the group studied was 65.7% (243 cases). In the case of all three indices, EASIX, mEASIX and sEASIX, there was a statistically significant correlation between the need for admission to the ICU (p = 0.026, p = 0.019, p = 0.001, respectively) and the risk of death (p < 0.001). In terms of the risk of death, the high values of the assessed indices (EASIX ≥ 2.36, mEASIX ≥ 704.03, sEASIX ≥ 3.81) were characterised by low sensitivity (≤40%), high specificity (approximately 90%) and low NPV (negative predictive value) (approximately 40%) with high PPV (positive predictive value) (approximately 80%). Due to the ease of implementation and the low cost of performing basic laboratory tests, the above-mentioned indices can be used as an additional, but not universal tool for the initial assessment of the health condition of patients admitted to the hospital.

Oxidative Stress Intensity in Children and Adolescents with a New Coronavirus Infection

The aim of our research was to assess the intensity of oxidative stress (OS) in children and adolescents with COVID-19 using the oxidative stress index (OSI). Methods and Results: The study was conducted between May 2020 and March 2021. The main group included 17 children and adolescents [8(47.1%) boys and 9(52.9%) girls;mean age of 12.35-14.01 years] with diagnosed COVID-19 infection (mild to moderate course) selected as a result of the primary diagnostic examination from among those admitted to hospitalization at the Irkutsk Regional Infectious Diseases Clinical Hospital. The control group included 17 healthy children and adolescents (average age of 12.35-14.01 years) matched by copy-pair type. The obtained data indicated statistically significant differences in a number of parameters between children and adolescents with COVID-19 and the contiol groups. We found statistically significant higher levels of lipid peroxidation (LPO) products (CDs, P<0.0001;KD and CT, P=0.006;and TBARs, (P=.013) in the study group than in the control group. Among antioxidant defense (AOD) system parameters, the levels of retinol (P=0.015) and reduced glutathione (P=0.048) and SOD activity (P<0.0001) were statistically lower in the study group than in the control group. The OSI level was significantly greater (by 8.5 times, P=0.028) in the study group than in the control group, which confirms the development of antioxidant deficiency in COVID-19. Conclusion: The results of the assessment of OSI in children and adolescents with COVID-19 indicate insufficient activity of some critical components of AOD and a shift of the redox balance toward pro-oxidant factors, which can have extremely negative consequences in the development of the disease. In this regard, we recommend carrying out corrective measures to stabilize LPO/AOD parameters by including drugs with antioxidant properties in the treatment complex.

Early warning system for risk of external liquidity shock in BRICS countries

The early-warning system (EWS) is recognized in the literature as a method of detecting crises prior to events and to reduce false alarms of possible crises. This study constructs an EWS for BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) countries to examine the risk of an external liquidity shock. The EWS index incorporates the sources, channels, and effects of shock in order to capture the key aspects of shock within the past 18 years. The findings show that the index peaks during financial crises. We then assess the predictive power of the EWS using an ARMA-GARCH model, which shows that Brazil, India, and South Africa are at great risk of shocks whereas China and Russia have relatively moderate risk in the coming years. The overall results highlight the importance of establishment of an EWS for countries such as Brazil, India, South Africa and other developing countries that have been struggling to cope up with the Covid 19 pandemic.

EASIX for Prediction of Outcome in Hospitalized SARS-CoV-2 Infected Patients.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) and has evoked a pandemic that challenges public health-care systems worldwide. Endothelial cell dysfunction plays a key role in pathophysiology, and simple prognosticators may help to optimize allocation of limited resources. Endothelial activation and stress index (EASIX) is a validated predictor of endothelial complications and outcome after allogeneic stem cell transplantation. Aim of this study was to test if EASIX could predict life-threatening complications in patients with COVID-19. METHODS: SARS-CoV-2-positive, hospitalized patients were enrolled onto a prospective non-interventional register study (n=100). Biomarkers were assessed at hospital admission. Primary endpoint was severe course of disease (mechanical ventilation and/or death, V/D). Results were validated in 126 patients treated in two independent institutions. RESULTS: EASIX at admission was a strong predictor of severe course of the disease (odds ratio for a two-fold change 3.4, 95%CI 1.8-6.3, p<0.001), time to V/D (hazard ratio (HR) for a two-fold change 2.0, 95%CI 1.5-2.6, p<0.001) as well as survival (HR for a two-fold change 1.7, 95%CI 1.2-2.5, p=0.006). The effect was retained in multivariable analysis adjusting for age, gender, and comorbidities and could be validated in the independent cohort. At hospital admission EASIX correlated with increased suppressor of tumorigenicity-2, soluble thrombomodulin, angiopoietin-2, CXCL8, CXCL9 and interleukin-18, but not interferon-alpha. CONCLUSION: EASIX is a validated predictor of COVID19 outcome and an easy-to-access tool to segregate patients in need for intensive surveillance.

Using the Food Stress Index for Emergency Food Assistance: An Australian Case Series Analysis during the COVID-19 Pandemic and Natural Disasters.

Food insecurity increases with human and natural disasters. Two tools were developed to assist effective food relief in Western Australia: the Food Stress Index (similar to rental stress, predicts the likelihood of household food insecurity by geographic location) and a basic and nutritious Food Basket Recommendation (that quantifies the types and amounts of food to meet dietary recommendations for different family types). This study aims to understand and compare the processes and impact of using these tools for organisations and their clients involved in emergency food assistance and/or disaster preparedness. A multiple case-study design analysed organisation's use of the tools to assist the response to COVID-19 pandemic restrictions and the catastrophic bushfires in Australia. Qualitative interviews were conducted by telephone and Zoom (a cloud-based video conferencing service) in July-August 2020. A purposeful sample of eight interviewees representing seven cases (government, food relief and community organisations involved in emergency food assistance and/or disaster preparedness). Three themes emerged from the analysis, (1) organisations are confident users of the tools; (2) Collaborations were "Ready to Go" and (3) Food Stress Index is a "game changer". Findings demonstrate the intrinsic value of the tools in the provision of emergency food relief under both normal circumstances and in times of increased need, i.e., COVID-19 pandemic. The study highlights the value and importance of ongoing intersectoral collaborations for food relief and food security (e.g., the Western Australian Food Relief Framework) and suggests that upscaling of the Food Stress Index and food baskets will increase the effectiveness of measures to address food insecurity in Australia.

Being Both a Parent and a Healthcare Worker in the Pandemic: Who Could Be Exhausted More?

(1) Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has changed the living conditions of many people. Many people felt significantly constrained. However, for individuals who are both parents and healthcare professionals, the situation seems more troubling in other ways. (2) Objectives: Based on this, we planned a study evaluating demographic characteristics, COVID-19-related anxiety levels, and parenting-related stress levels of the health care professionals who were working in the University Hospital. We also evaluated the parameters that affect COVID-19-related anxiety and parenting stress. (3) Methods: The level of COVID-19-related anxiety is assessed by the coronavirus anxiety scale. The parenting stress index-short form is used for evaluation of parenting stress. Statistical analysis was done by SPSS version 22. (4) Results: Female gender, working as a nurse, a history of COVID-19, and having a child attending daycare were parameters that increased the level of COVID-19-related anxiety. Occupation, being a parent of a schoolchild and/or primary school child, being a parent of a child receiving face-to-face education, and having more than two children were found to be risk factors for parenting stress. Clinically significant parenting stress was found to increase threefold in healthcare workers with more than two children (R2 = 0.101, p = 0.039). (5) Conclusions: Healthcare professionals, who are also parents, play a huge role both at home and in the hospital in the pandemic. Therefore, it is inevitable that their stress and anxiety levels increase. It is important to determine the factors that cause stress and anxiety and to take measures in this direction to get through this process well.

Risk factors of SARS-CoV-2 infection in healthcare workers: a retrospective study of a nosocomial outbreak.

BACKGROUND: Healthcare workers (HCWs) are at the forefront of fighting against the COVID-19 pandemic. However, they are at high risk of acquiring the pathogen from infected patients and transmitting to other HCWs. We aimed to investigate risk factors for nosocomial COVID-19 infection among HCWs in a non-COVID-19 hospital yard. METHODS: Retrospective data collection on demographics, lifestyles, contact status with infected subjects for 118 HCWs (including 12 COVID-19 HCWs) at Union Hospital of Wuhan, China. Sleep quality and working pressure were evaluated by the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI) and The Nurse Stress Index (NSI), respectively. The follow-up duration was from Dec 25, 2019, to Feb 15, 2020. RESULTS: A high proportion of COVID-19 HCWs had engaged in night shift-work (75.0% vs. 40.6%) and felt working under pressure (66.7% vs. 32.1%) than uninfected HCWs. SARS-CoV-2 infected HCWs had significantly higher scores of PSQI and NSI than uninfected HCWs (P < 0.001). Specifically, scores of 5 factors (sleep quality, sleep time, sleep efficiency, sleep disorder, and daytime dysfunction) in PSQI were higher among infected HCWs. For NSI, its 5 subscales (nursing profession and work, workload and time allocation, working environment and resources, patient care, management and interpersonal relations) were all higher in infected than uninfected nurse. Furthermore, total scores of PSQI (HR = 2.97, 95%CI = 1.86-4.76; P <0.001) and NSI (HR = 4.67, 95%CI = 1.42-15.45; P = 0.011) were both positively associated with the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection. CONCLUSION: Our analysis shows that poor sleep quality and higher working pressure may increase the risk of nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infection among HCWs.